WhenWarEnds

WhenWarEnds

whenwarends.org is a non-commercial, Ukrainian-built dashboard that answers one question with calm, transparent data: when does this war end? It shows a market-implied probability distribution for the end of the Russia–Ukraine war, a scrubbable timeline of measured indicators, and a short weekly brief, and it never authors its own prediction.

Visit

• Open the live site at whenwarends.org
• Read the source on GitHub

What it does

• Hero curve, a cumulative distribution of the market-implied probability that the war has ended by each date, drawn from live prediction markets
• Three summary cards, the closest market, the liquidity-weighted consensus, and the most optimistic market, read straight off the curve
• The war in data, a scrubbable timeline of measured indicators since 24 February 2022: front line, fighting intensity, economy, energy, and displacement
• Weekly brief, a short, clearly-labelled editorial summary plus related news, auto-published behind code-level integrity guards; the site never issues its own call

How it's built

• Static-first Astro on Cloudflare's free tier, no ads, no accounts, no paid tiers
• Free, open data only, Polymarket and Manifold for war-end probabilities; GDELT, NASA FIRMS, Kiel, World Bank, the central banks of Ukraine and Russia, the ECB, Oryx, DeepState and the U.S. EIA for indicators
• Traceable numbers, every figure links to a free, open, publicly accessible source; estimates are labelled as such
• Cookieless analytics, no cookies, no identifiers, no cross-site or cross-session tracking

Why it exists

People who live with this war, at home and abroad, deserve a sober, honest reference point that is neither doom-scrolling nor false comfort. The advocacy is in choosing to build it; the presentation stays restrained and never sensational.

License

Non-commercial, built in Dhaka by The Shark Web, released under CC BY 4.0 , open data, open source.